Climate scientists predict that the El Nino phenomenon will cause high temperatures across Asia, leading to heat, drought, water shortages, and the risk of forest fires.
The effects of El Nino were seen in the devastating fires that swept through Indonesia in 2015, causing more than 100,000 premature deaths across the country and neighboring Malaysia and Singapore. Climate experts warn that the frequency and intensity of heatwaves will increase rapidly as climate change continues to rage, leading to extreme weather events.
The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (WMO) predicts that there is an 80% chance that the El Nino climate model will appear by October 2023, with a 60% chance that it will develop after July. Authorities are attempting to roll out heat action plans to cities across Asia to deal with the heat.
Ika Krishnayanti clearly remembers the last time large, deadly wildfires swept through Indonesia. Involved in more than 100,000 premature deaths across the country as well as in neighboring Malaysia and Singapore due to the haze that enveloped the region, the massive fires of 2015 left a legacy for later. They turned into “rage” after the El Nino climate model extended the dry season in Indonesia and redirected seasonal rains, the effects of which are worsened as the world warms and climate change.
“The fires cause huge damage to Indonesia and its farmers. This year, if El Nino comes, Indonesia needs to prepare strictly because that damage could happen again,” said Krishnayanti, farmer and international relations officer of the Indonesian Farmers Association, said.
Over the past three years, a contrasting global warming phenomenon, called La Nina, has taken place. But climate scientists predict El Nino will return in 2023, accompanied by extreme conditions such as heat, dryness and fire danger. They warn temperatures will rise to record levels across Asia this year, as the region becomes sweltering from extreme heatwaves and faces an extreme future.
Temperatures reached a scorching 50 degrees Celsius in parts of Thailand in April. In India, at least 13 people died of heatstroke and dozens were hospitalized when the thermometer neared 45 degrees at a ceremony. awards outdoor awards near Mumbai in mid-April. In China, nearly a year on from the severe heat and drought of 2022, more than 100 weather stations last month recorded record-high temperatures.
Globally, the past eight years have been the hottest on record. Extreme weather events are becoming increasingly common. Experts warn that the frequency and intensity of heat waves is likely to increase rapidly as climate change continues to rage.
Dr Wang Jingyu, assistant professor at the National Institute of Education Singapore, an expert in climate modeling and soil-atmosphere interactions, said last month was “Asia’s hottest April”. He attributed the intense heat to an imminent return of El Nino along with its effects such as reduced rainfall and increased temperatures.
The United Nations World Meteorological Organization (UN) on May 3 predicted that there is an 80% chance that this climate model will appear by October this year, adding that there is a 60% chance that it will develop. right after July. Meanwhile, an 11-year-old boy in Malaysia died of heatstroke and dehydration last month when the thermometer reading spiked to 40 degrees Celsius and at least five people needed medical treatment.
Luang Prabang in Laos reached a record high of 42.7 degrees Celsius and the temperature climbed to about 45 degrees Celsius in Myanmar. In Bangladesh, there are reports of pavements melting under the blazing sun in Dhaka. In India, state governments closed schools and ministers urged children to stay home to avoid headaches and fatigue caused by high temperatures.
According to Benjamin Horton, director of the Singapore Earth Observatory at Nanyang Technological University, a heatwave of such magnitude cannot be caused by El Nino alone. “Something else is also happening. The Earth is getting warmer, with significantly higher atmospheric humidity,” concludes Horton. At the same time, he stressed that naturally fluctuating climate cycles are not the only cause of recent record-breaking extreme weather events.
Human activities, including fossil fuel burning, deforestation and other land-use changes, cause the climate crisis by releasing increasing amounts of greenhouse gases into the atmosphere, keeping heat and warm the planet. Global greenhouse gas emissions continued to rise last year despite warnings from the United Nations that they must peak by 2025 to avoid disaster. Temperatures are at least 1.1 degrees Celsius higher than in pre-industrial times.
Horton said that the record heat disrupted crop production, put pressure on society, and led to the highest levels of energy consumption.
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Small fisherman’s boat approaches to the fishing zone early in the morning at Ha Long Bay of Vietnam
Plan to deal with the heat
According to the World Meteorological Organization, nearly 26,000 people died in heatwaves in India from 1992 to 2020. Recent years have recorded an increase in the frequency, duration, and intensity of heatwaves, which are common in the country from March to July. This year, India’s weather agency predicts above-average temperatures and heatwaves to last until the end of May, due to the possibility of a temperature increase because of El Nino.
Dileep Mavalankar, director of the Indian Institute of Public Health in Gujarat, said that many people, including officials, still lack knowledge about the best course of action in extreme heat, while data on heat-related mortality rates is still very low. “If El Nino disrupts India’s monsoon, there won’t be enough rain. This will have a great impact on agriculture and farming, and consequently the whole economy will suffer,” Mavalankar said.
Mavalankar added that India’s Ministry of Health and the disaster management agency have not taken into account the possible impact on people if the heatwave worsens later this year. Having created India’s first heatwave action plan for a city when 800 people died in Ahmedabad after a particularly hot week in 2010, Mavalankar says public education is paramount. His plan for Ahmedabad involved simple measures such as instructing people what to do in case of high temperatures and preparing the medical system to handle heat emergencies, resulting in a total of mortality decreased by 30-40% during the peak heatwave.
Authorities have attempted to roll out a heat action plan to other cities across India, but more pressing concerns such as persistently high inflation and food insecurity are usually preferred. That situation could spell disaster for a country of more than 1.4 billion people.
Lack of water
Concerns about water shortages in the coming months are spreading around the region. In the Philippines, government agencies emphasize the importance of preventing the risk of a water crisis caused by El Nino to avoid a repeat of the 2019 incident when about 10,000 households in the Metro Manila area were left without water, as the water levels in the capital’s main reservoirs dried up. The National Water Resources Board responded with contingency plans to ramp up production and reactivate deep wells.
Thailand last month issued a warning urging people to save water. Malaysia’s National Water Resources Office is also preparing for a drought that will hit the states of Kedah, Kelantan, and Perlis, resulting in hot and dry conditions. The Royal Malaysian Air Force is working with the country’s meteorological agency to sow clouds over Penang to replenish water supplies for dams that have dried up.
Fire protection
According to Dwikorita Karnawati, director of Indonesia’s meteorological agency, the extremely high temperatures recorded in many parts of Indonesia have not yet been classified as a heatwave. He also said the daily maximum temperature started to drop in late April. The government in February also encouraged farmers and plantation companies to watch out for wildfires in Sumatra and Kalimantan ahead of El Nino.
Krishnayanti of the Indonesian Farmers’ Association said her biggest fear is that the irresponsible actions of some people could have serious consequences for everyone. “The impact of El Nino could be made worse by irresponsible companies or careless slashers. Farmers must stay awake to survive in difficult times like these.” Krishnayanti said. She believes that slash-and-burn practices to clear arable land should be banned in this year’s drier weather conditions.
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Source: Vietnam Insider