World news – Global Business Magazine https://thegbm.com Business news, opinion, reviews, interviews Thu, 09 May 2024 06:17:29 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=6.5.3 https://thegbm.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Bizmag-logo.png World news – Global Business Magazine https://thegbm.com 32 32 195744517 Japan is not seeking a strong yen, it just wants a stable currency, David Roche says https://thegbm.com/japan-is-not-seeking-a-strong-yen-it-just-wants-a-stable-currency-david-roche-says/ Thu, 09 May 2024 06:17:29 +0000 https://thegbm.com/japan-is-not-seeking-a-strong-yen-it-just-wants-a-stable-currency-david-roche-says

Japan is not seeking a strong yen but rather aiming for a relatively stable currency, according to veteran investor David Roche.

The Japanese yen has been on a roller coaster ride, with the currency breaking past 160 against the greenback last week — steepest decline in more than three decades. It has since strengthened amid speculation about two interventions by Japanese authorities.  

“The Japanese are not aiming at a particularly strong yen. I think they’re aiming at a relatively stable yen —  they don’t want it to go through the floor anymore,” Roche, president and global strategist at Independent Strategy, told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

Japan has acted in way so as “not to create inflation, which undermines the governor of Bank of Japan.”

The weakness in the yen had persisted after the BOJ’s monetary policy decision in April and in spite of warnings from Japanese authorities.

Reportedly, Japanese authorities could have spent about $60 billion to prop up the yen after its sharp fall last week. The yen was last trading at around 155.61 against the dollar.

The summary of the BOJ’s latest policy meeting released Thursday revealed that the central bank was concerned that a sharply weaker yen risks driving up import prices.

“The recent depreciation of the yen and rises in prices, such as crude oil, have started to affect producer prices through an increase in import prices,” the BOJ policy board members said at their last meeting that concluded on April 26.

“While the yen’s depreciation is likely to push down the economy in the short run through price rises driven by cost-push factors, it could push up underlying inflation in the medium to long run” the members said.  

The currency has languished alongside continued strength in the greenback as Federal Reserve rate cut expectations get pushed back. 

Japan could not “possibly speak to have policy that really results in a strong yen unless they tighten monetary policy,” Roche said, adding that it would involve raising interest rates by at least 50 basis points and allowing “unsterilized intervention” of the yen.

“In other words, it shrinks the supply of domestic money. As far as I can see from the statistics, they’ve [Bank of Japan] done nothing like that,” Roche noted.  

By CNBC

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Gold bars are selling like hot cakes in Korea’s convenience stores and vending machines https://thegbm.com/gold-bars-are-selling-like-hot-cakes-in-koreas-convenience-stores-and-vending-machines/ Wed, 08 May 2024 00:08:05 +0000 https://thegbm.com/gold-bars-are-selling-like-hot-cakes-in-koreas-convenience-stores-and-vending-machines

Gold bars arranged at the Korea Gold Exchange store in Seoul, South Korea, on Friday, Oct. 13, 2023. 
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

Aside from ramen and sausages, South Korea’s convenience stores have a new popular item on the menu — gold bars. 

The country’s largest convenience store chain, CU, has been collaborating with the Korea Minting and Security Printing Corporation (KOMSCO) to offer customers mini gold bars — and they’re selling like hot cakes. 

A variety of finger-nail sized gold bars weighing between 0.1 gram and 1.87 gram have been up for sale at CU outlets since April. A 1.87 gram bar sells for 225,000 won ($165.76) and a 0.5 gram bar sells for 77,000 won.

Priced at 113,000 won each, 1 gram bars were sold out within two days, according to local news reports. The bars come with congratulatory messages, birthday wishes and even designs for personality types.

People in their 30s were most active in purchasing these gold bars, accounting for over 41% of the total sales since their launch, according to CU’s commerce phone app Pocket CU. Those in their 40s make up 35.2% of the sales, followed by people in their 50s at 15.6%. People in their 20s accounted for 6.8% of all sales.

Demand for bars and coins in South Korea rose 27% year on year to 5 tons in the first quarter of this year amid rising prices of the yellow metal, the World Gold Council said in a recent report. This was the sharpest quarterly increase in gold purchases in South Korea in more than two years, WGC noted. 

It makes sense that many younger investors are exploring gold as a way to diversify and protect their assets.
Shaokai Fan
World Gold Council Head of Central Banks

Other convenience stores are also riding the bullion wave. In South Korea’s GS25 convenience store chain, customers can buysmall gold wafers from vending machines.

“Typically in times of economic uncertainty when the local currency depreciates, the demand for gold physical jewelry will increase as domestic investors seek investment for safe haven assets,” said Heng Koon How, head of markets strategy, global economics and markets research at UOB.

According to the Korea Gold Exchange, prices of gold have surged to a record 456,000 won ($335.3) per 3.75 grams, or 0.13 ounce. Conversely, the Korean won has weakened over 5% against the greenback so far this year, currently trading at 1,358.7 against the dollar.

The WGC noted a recent trend of growing investment interest among a younger cohort in Asia, even as gold prices smash past record highs.

“Many Asian economies are dealing with inflation and financial uncertainty for the first time in a generation,” WGC Global Head of Central Banks Shaokai Fan told CNBC via email. “It makes sense that many younger investors are exploring gold as a way to diversify and protect their assets.”

Consumers in Asia’s largest economy, China, have has also been buying gold, with the collecting of 1 gram small beans in glass jars becoming a trend among the country’s youth. China is also leading consumer demand for bullion, with the country overtaking India in 2023 to become the world’s largest buyer of gold jewelry. 

Separately, in the U.S. last year, retail warehouse giant Costco became a popular one-stop shop for one ounce gold bars priced at close to $1,900.

By CNBC

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U.S. wins global leadership approval over China when a Democrat is president, Gallup analysis shows https://thegbm.com/u-s-wins-global-leadership-approval-over-china-when-a-democrat-is-president-gallup-analysis-shows/ Mon, 06 May 2024 09:20:51 +0000 https://thegbm.com/u-s-wins-global-leadership-approval-over-china-when-a-democrat-is-president-gallup-analysis-shows

China’s President Xi Jinping and U.S. President Joe Biden at the G20 Summit in Nusa Dua on the Indonesian island of Bali on Nov. 14, 2022.
Saul Loeb | Afp | Getty Images

Most countries prefer alignment with the U.S. over China when the White House is occupied by a Democrat, according to Gallup poll data going back to 2007. 

“Significantly more countries seem to prefer U.S. leadership over Chinese leadership, at least under Democratic administrations,” Gallup said in a report released Monday, adding that a Republican executive comes with a “net approval disadvantage.”

Gallup’s report showed that in 2023, nearly half (48%) of the world’s countries leaned towards the U.S. as opposed to China — which was favored by 21% of the more than 130 countries polled. Over a fifth of the nations were found to be “strongly aligned” with the U.S., the highest rate since 2009.

Throughout most of the Trump administration, a larger share of countries had favored China, which changed as Democrat Joe Biden took office at the start of 2021.

“The magnitude of these swings comes into stark focus when one compares country alignments across years,” the global analytics and advisory firm said, citing similar party-related trends under the George Bush and Barack Obama administrations. 

The trend outlined by Gallup suggests that America’s influence over the world could be dependent on the tightly contested upcoming presidential rematch between Biden and Trump. 

Leading up to the election, both candidates have signaled a tough stance on China, with a growing number of Americans seeing Beijing as an enemy rather than a competitor or partner, according to a Pew Research poll released last week.

According to Gallup, the “bounce-back” under the Biden administration suggests that the U.S.’s net approval advantage over China is resilient, especially when accounting for more strongly aligned groups. 

Though China made short-term country gains in relative alignment under Trump, most fell under the “weakly aligned” category.” China’s favorability peaked in 2007 as it emerged on the global stage, but increased familiarity with Beijing has not boosted its appeal, Gallup said.

Meanwhile, U.S. leadership has enjoyed a general net approval rate under the Biden and Obama administrations, compared with net disapproval rates under the Trump and last two years of the Bush leadership, the report showed.

In the back-and-forth battle for global influence, however, both the world’s economic superpowers have suffered a trend of disillusionment in one form or the other in recent years. 

Gallup analysis showed that since 2017, more countries disapproved of both China and U.S. leadership than approved of them, with 2021 being an exception. The disapproval rate was the highest under the Trump administration, peaking in 2020 at 48%.

Even though this proportion has declined during the Biden administration, it remains roughly double what it was for most of the Obama administration, Gallup said.

“This trend toward an increasing number of countries expressing negative net approval of U.S. and Chinese leadership suggests a growing lack of enthusiasm for these two global powers,” it added.  

The U.S. has lost much of its relative favorability versus China in countries such as Russia and some nations in Africa. On the other hand, it made gains in some countries impacted by the invasion of Ukraine, such as Poland, and several Asian countries.  

While it gained approval of countries in Southeast Asia, such as the Philippines, a majority of countries in the region are likely to align with China and not the U.S. if forced to pick sides, according to a regional survey earlier this year.

Of the countries identified as world leaders in Gallup’s latest “Rating World Leaders” report, Germany led both the U.S. and China with an approval rate of 46%. The third largest economy in the world had the highest approval ratings in both Europe and Asia.

By CNBC

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China’s ‘unprecedented’ space mission blasts off to the far side of the moon to collect samples https://thegbm.com/chinas-unprecedented-space-mission-blasts-off-to-the-far-side-of-the-moon-to-collect-samples/ Fri, 03 May 2024 16:32:34 +0000 https://thegbm.com/chinas-unprecedented-space-mission-blasts-off-to-the-far-side-of-the-moon-to-collect-samples

A Long March 5 rocket, carrying the Chang’e-6 mission lunar probe, lifts off as it rains at the Wenchang Space Launch Centre in southern China’s Hainan Province on May 3, 2024. 
Hector Retamal | Afp | Getty Images

China on Friday launched a space probe to collect samples from the far side of the moon in a mission that has been billed as “unprecedented” as the global space race heats up.

An unmanned rocket carrying the Chang’e-6 lunar probe took off from Wenchang Space Launch Center in Hainan province just before 5:30 p.m. local time, kick-starting the 53-day planned mission.

The expedition aims to return around 5 pounds of lunar samples to Earth for analysis. If successful, scientists hope the findings could unlock fresh information about the moon’s origins.

“Collecting and returning samples from the far side of the moon is an unprecedented feat,” Wu Weiren, chief designer of China’s lunar exploration program, said, according to Chinese state news agency Xinhua.

“Scientists currently know very little about the moon’s far side. If the Chang’e-6 mission can achieve its goal, it will provide scientists with the first direct evidence to understand the environment and material composition of the far side of the moon, which is of great significance,” he added.

The launch marks a significant step forward in China’s space exploration ambitions as it seeks to compete with other global powers including the U.S.

Beijing has also stated that it wants to land Chinese astronauts on the moon by 2030, as well as sending probes to Mars and Jupiter.

Space is becoming a new geopolitical frontier as rival nations seek to expand their influence and access highly sought-after supplies of metals and critical minerals.

The head of the U.S. Space Command, Gen. Stephen Whiting, said last week that Beijing’s space development was moving at “breathtaking speed” and that the country was showing “clear intent” to project its power in orbit.

By CNBC

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Japan’s finance minister says yen intervention may be necessary when there are ‘excessive’ moves https://thegbm.com/japans-finance-minister-says-yen-intervention-may-be-necessary-when-there-are-excessive-moves/ Fri, 03 May 2024 15:54:44 +0000 https://thegbm.com/japans-finance-minister-says-yen-intervention-may-be-necessary-when-there-are-excessive-moves

In this article

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki speaks during the presidency press conference at the G7 meeting of finance ministers and central bank governors, at Toki Messe in Niigata, Japan, on May 13, 2023.
Pool | Via Reuters

Japanese Finance Minister Shunichi Suzuki on Friday backed currency interventions by his country’s policymakers if the yen moved in sharp directions that started to affect households and companies.

Speaking to reporters at the Asian Development Bank’s annual meeting in Tbilisi, Georgia, he said it was desirable for exchange rates to move stably.

“When there is an excessive movement, it may be necessary to smooth it out,” he told CNBC’s Dan Murphy, according to a translation.

The finance minister declined to comment when asked whether current levels for the yen were appropriate. He also would not comment on whether his ministry had intervened in the currency market recently, amid intense speculation.

On Wednesday, the currency strengthened by more than 2% to trade near 153 against the dollar, which is likely to have been caused by an intervention, according to some market analysts. Japanese authorities are yet to issue an official statement confirming their role in propping up the currency.

“The government has been refusing to disclose whether they’ve been intervening or not, but I don’t think many people have any doubts,” Nicholas Smith, Japan strategist at CLSA, told CNBC earlier this week.

A weak yen against the greenback can hurt the economy by raising import costs and Suzuki’s words on Friday are more confirmation that policymakers are keeping a close eye on the exchange rate.

The yen was trading at 152.85 against the dollar on Friday evening Asia time. In the past few decades, while other global central banks have tightened their policies, Japan has maintained its ultra-loose strategy.

— CNBC’s Shreyashi Sanyal contributed to this story.

By CNBC

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CNBC’s Inside India newsletter: Will AI make or break India https://thegbm.com/cnbcs-inside-india-newsletter-will-ai-make-or-break-india/ Thu, 02 May 2024 16:30:20 +0000 https://thegbm.com/cnbcs-inside-india-newsletter-will-ai-make-or-break-india

Findlay Kember | AFP | Getty Images

This report is from this week’s CNBC’s “Inside India” newsletter which brings you timely, insightful news and market commentary on the emerging powerhouse and the big businesses behind its meteoric rise. Like what you see? You can subscribe here.

The big story

It was a tale of two European companies. But one that could foreshadow India’s growth story. 

When fintech firm Klarna said it was using artificial intelligence to provide customer service earlier this year, shares of the French outsourcing giant Teleperformance tumbled by nearly 20%. 

The Swedish buy-now-pay-later firm had revealed that its AI chatbot was now doing the work of 700 full-time customer service jobs, netting the firm $40 million in savings. That was enough to frighten investors into dumping shares of Teleperformance over concerns that AI would disrupt its own profitable call center business in the future. 

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The Paris-listed company, worth nearly 6 billion euros ($6.4 billion), employs 500,000 people globally who do telemarketing, customer relationship management, and content moderation, among other roles — all at risk of being disrupted by AI. The firm’s stock has tanked by 55% since ChatGPT launched, while the French stock market has risen by 24%. 

Can Teleperformance’s stock plunge be the canary in the coal mine for what is likely to happen to India because of AI? The chief executive of India’s Tata Consultancy Services thinks so. 

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K Krithivasan told the Financial Times recently that AI is likely to resolve customer complaints even before people pick up the phone to call a company’s helpline — eliminating most call center jobs in the process.

The head of TCS, which predominantly employs software developers in its global workforce of some 600,000 people, expects this is likely to happen in “a year or so down the line.” 

While Krithivasan said that job losses have yet to materialize due to AI, others are already counting the impact it’s likely to have on the labor market.  

Researchers from the World Bank, International Monetary Fund and the University of Oxford found that the demand for AI skills hurts labor demand for non-AI roles in India. This means that for every job created that requires a specialism in AI, there are fewer jobs in other sectors. 

“We find that AI adoption initially coincides with a small increase in general hiring but then reduces demand for non-AI workers over the next few years, such that the overall effect is substantially negative,” the researchers said. 

However, automation in the business process outsourcing (BPO) sector could quickly turn political due to its outsized position in India’s economy. 

While it employs only 0.4% of all jobs, the sector is responsible for 6.5% of India’s GDP and 25% of its exports, according to Capital Economics. It also employs many of India’s youth — a demographic currently responsible for more than 80% of all unemployed people in India. 

Prime Minister Narendra Modi, currently contesting for a third term in the ongoing general elections, has already been pressured by opposition parties for not doing enough to create jobs. AI, it appears, is set to make his job harder if he’s re-elected. 

It’s not all doom and gloom, however. 

Even under the absolute worst-case scenario — and highly unlikely — where the BPO sector is wholly decimated, Shilan Shah, deputy chief emerging markets economist at Capital Economics, estimates the damage will amount to a mere 0.8 percentage points off annual GDP growth. 

Yes, every job lost is a period of turmoil and misery for the individual and often their dependents. But it’s likely to be a blip for India’s growth trajectory, given the macro forces at play.  

Investment bank Nomura, for instance, has forecast that India’s economy will grow 7% on average over the next five years on the back of growth in manufacturing — a sector that is yet to see real AI disruption.

India also appears to be focused on creating jobs in high-tech sectors and has had some successes recently. 

Qualcomm, the American chip giant, is already designing semiconductors in Chennai by tapping into the country’s pool of talented engineers. India has also been wooing foreign chip makers like Taiwan’s Powerchip Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. to set up operations in the country. 

Besides creating jobs that are less likely to be immediately disrupted by AI, India could also be a net beneficiary of artificial intelligence. 

Due to its geographical characteristics, India is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world when it comes to climate change.  

India’s meteorological department revealed earlier this year that it is set to use AI to improve weather forecasts and predict severe events. It is expected to positively impact the agricultural sector, which employs about 45% of India’s workforce.

The rapid improvement in India’s financial infrastructure — the UPI payments network — has given birth to several new tech companies currently using AI to lower the cost of finance.

India is also unlikely to be alone in confronting the challenges AI poses. Goldman Sachs last year estimated that one in four jobs in the U.S. and Europe are also at risk of disruption.

While it will be a challenge for India, it’s unlikely to be a problem for only India. 

The latest on the elections

Our News Editor Vinay Dwivedi has been on the ground in India speaking to farmers who have been spearheading protests against the government in recent months. About 250 million people work in agriculture in India.

Their main demand is a guaranteed minimum support price across agriculture commodities, to combat rising production costs. But the government has shown no signs of capitulation, even as it risks losing support from this huge farmer population at the ballot box.

Meanwhile, economists have said the farmers’ demands are not economically viable.

“These demands are not just detrimental to the agricultural sector, but they will throw a major spanner in the economy. The entire economy will go into a tizzy,” economist and a former chairman of the Commission for Agricultural Costs and Prices, Ashok Gulati, said.

Need to know

Nomura projects India’s economy could grow by an average of 7% in the next five years. The new prediction by the Japanese bank is reliant on policy continuity after the election result — whoever wins. The projection is much higher than Nomura’s growth outlook for China (3.9%), Singapore (2.5%) and South Korea (1.8%) in the same period. 

America’s fastest-growing sport is looking to India for its next leg of growth. The United Pickleball Association and Global Sports announced a deal last week to bring the PPA Tour and Major League Pickleball to India. Pickleball, for those that don’t know, is a racket sport that combines elements of tennis, table-tennis and badminton.

White House comments on India’s alleged role in assassination plots. A Washington Post report alleged that the Indian intelligence services were involved in assassination plots in Canada and the United States. India’s foreign ministry said the report made “unwarranted and unsubstantiated imputations on a serious matter,” while White House spokesperson Karine Jean-Pierre told reporters. “We’re going to continue to raise our concerns.”

What happened in the markets?

The Indian stock market indexes, Sensex and Nifty 50, are heading for a positive week again — up by 1% and 1.2%, respectively. The benchmarks are up by 3.28% and 4.22% so far this year.

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The 10-year Indian government bond yield has been trading range bound — with a rate between 7.15 and 7.20 in the last last week.

The Indian rupee has slackened against the U.S. dollar, even as global oil prices edged lower as markets repriced for fewer U.S. rate cuts this year. However, markets also interpreted U.S. Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell as being less hawkish than expected as he downplayed the possibility of an interest rate hike during his press conference Wednesday.

On CNBC TV this week, we had Raghuram Rajan, the former Reserve Bank of India governor and professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business. He said India’s 8.5% growth rate has some “fluff” in it, but added that “even 6-6.5%” is a pretty good number for the country.

Meanwhile, Ashish Jain, the chief financial officer of the Indian food processing company KRBL, discussed the country’s agricultural slump in the wake of poor weather conditions.

CNBC’s Ayushi Jindal also sent a report from inside Qualcomm’s newly built design center in Chennai, where they are already designing chips.

What’s happening next week?

Aside from the elections, we’ll have Indegene, which provides digital services to the life science industry, hitting the Indian primary market. The subscription will be from May 6-8, and shares will likely be listed on the BSE and NSE on May 13.

By CNBC

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India’s 8.5% growth rate has some ‘fluff,’ former central bank chief Raghuram Rajan says https://thegbm.com/indias-8-5-growth-rate-has-some-fluff-former-central-bank-chief-raghuram-rajan-says/ Thu, 02 May 2024 08:20:42 +0000 https://thegbm.com/indias-8-5-growth-rate-has-some-fluff-former-central-bank-chief-raghuram-rajan-says

There is some ‘fluff’ in India’s economic growth rate, according to former Reserve Bank of India Governor Raghuram Rajan.

This isn’t a reflection of “pessimism” as “even 6-6.5% growth is a pretty good number,” he told CNBC’s “Squawk Box Asia” on Thursday.

India’s economy grew a robust 8.4% in the October to December quarter, blowing past expectations, on strong private consumption and manufacturing activity. Reuters had estimated GDP growth of 6.6%.

“The 8.5% has a little bit of fluff in it,” said Rajan, currently a professor of finance at the University of Chicago Booth School of Business.

The Indian government raised its GDP growth outlook for fiscal year 2023-24 to 7.6% from 7.3% forecast earlier.

Rajan said one of problems with GDP data is that it mostly reflects India’s large firms while smaller companies have only seen “tepid growth.”

“When we eventually readjust the GDP numbers, with the fact that small firms haven’t grown that much, my guess is — we’ll come closer to the 6-6.5%,” he said.

Last month,  IMF executive director Krishnamurthy Subramanian told CNBC that India was set to grow at an annual rate of 8%, as the government focuses on higher capital expenditure, which has increased significantly over the last few years.

India’s finance ministry has forecast that the country is on track to becoming to be the world’s third-largest economy by 2027, with a GDP of $5 trillion.

“It’s good to be realistic about your GDP numbers because that forms the basis of policy. If you think you’re growing fantastically, why change policy at all?” Rajan said.

The International Monetary Fund has called India “the world’s fastest-growing major economy,” where “public investment remains an important driver.”

But to maintain strong rates of growth India’s private sector investment “has to pick up strongly,” to create jobs so that more people can join the labor force, Rajan said.

“With all the euphoria about Indian growth — why aren’t private Indian firms investing at a larger rate than they have been?” he added. “Everybody says they’re going to invest but the fact on the ground is they haven’t invested enough so far.”

Other experts, however, have voiced different opinions. Bhargav Dasgupta, vice-president (Market Solutions) at the Asian Development Bank (ADB) reportedly said last month that growth in private investments in India was “very visible,” and the bank was also looking to scale up its investments in the country.

— CNBC’s Shreyashi Sanyal contributed to this report

By CNBC

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‘Liquid gold’: An olive oil shortage is fueling record prices and food insecurity fears https://thegbm.com/liquid-gold-an-olive-oil-shortage-is-fueling-record-prices-and-food-insecurity-fears/ Thu, 02 May 2024 08:02:35 +0000 https://thegbm.com/liquid-gold-an-olive-oil-shortage-is-fueling-record-prices-and-food-insecurity-fears

Extreme hot weather and persistent drought conditions have dealt a severe blow to olive oil production in southern Europe, resulting in a significant surge in prices. The effects of these adverse climate conditions have been particularly pronounced in the European Union (EU), where countries collectively account for a staggering two-thirds of global olive oil production, alongside a substantial 900,000 tons of table olives.
Anadolu | Anadolu | Getty Images

A shortage of olive oil, sometimes referred to as “liquid gold,” has driven prices to record highs, fueled a crime surge and pushed the industry into crisis mode.

The skyrocketing price of the liquid fat, a superfood staple of the Mediterranean diet, has stunned consumers and industry veterans alike in recent months.

Kyle Holland, an analyst at market research group Mintec, said climate-fueled extreme weather had “significantly impacted” olive oil production in southern Europe in recent years, particularly in Mediterranean countries such as Spain, Italy and Greece.

Spain, which supplies more than 40% of the world’s production according to the Centre for the Promotion of Imports, might typically be expected to produce somewhere between 1.3 million to 1.5 million metric tons of olive oil each harvest, Holland said.

However, official figures showed Spain only cultivated around 666,000 metric tons for the 2022/2023 campaign. Market players surveyed by Mintec expect a production range of 830,000 to 850,000 metric tons for Spain’s 2023/2024 season, an increase of roughly 40,000 metric tons from previous estimates.

Extra virgin olive oil prices in Spain’s Andalusia stood at 7.8 euros ($8.4) per kilogram as of April 19, according to Mintec’s benchmark index, down from just over 8 euros at the end of March. The decline extends a downward trend, after olive oil prices reached an unprecedented peak of 9.2 euros in January.

I’ll be candid with you, some players we speak to that have been doing this for many years wonder how they are going to carry on.
Kyle Holland
Analyst at Mintec

A dizzying rally for olive oil has cooled in recent weeks, in part due to beneficial rains in March and April and to an uptick in production estimates for Spain’s olive harvest. But analysts said that dwindling olive oil reserves would likely keep markets on edge for sudden price spikes over the coming months.

“I think the biggest concern is effectively the overall supply. People are quite bearish on the market right now, but as the season wears on, and as we get further and further away from the harvest we’ve just had, most market players seem to think that it is going to drain,” Holland told CNBC by telephone.

“The question on people’s lips is yes, prices seem to be going down right now, but eventually people are going to need to start buying. And when you’re buying against diminished volumes, they are saying that if volumes drain and everyone needs to buy, then prices have to go up.”

De Rustica olive oil is poured into glasses for a tasting at the De Rustica Olive Estate on April 29, 2024, close to the town of De Rust, about 450km from Cape Town.
Rodger Bosch | Afp | Getty Images

“This is not normal,” Vito Martielli, senior analyst of grains and oilseeds at Netherlands-based Rabobank, told CNBC by telephone.

Martielli said the recent price volatility was like nothing he’d ever seen in his more than 20 years of studying the olive oil sector.

“To have a clear view, I think we need to wait a couple of months until the end of June, but rain in the month of the March was a positive signal for improving production,” he added.

Olive trees ‘exceedingly’ vulnerable to climate change

Helena Bennett, head of climate policy at independent think tank Green Alliance UK, unequivocally attributed the record spike in olive oil prices to climate change.

“The world’s biggest exporter of olive oil, Spain, has halved its production due to drought and extreme heat, increasing its price (at origin!) 112% since 2022,” Bennett said on social media platform X on April 10.

“It’s happening to other food crops too. Olive oil today, everything else soon.”

In a first of its kind regional analysis of climate-related risks, the European Environment Agency said in March that European countries should prepare for “catastrophic” consequences, as the deepening climate crisis hits every part of their economies this century.

The EEA’s report said climate impacts on food production could hit the region hard, particularly in southern Europe, as extreme heat becomes more frequent and precipitation patterns change.

A drone view of a field with dead olive trees that have died after becoming infected with Xylella fastidiosa, near Lecce, Puglia, Italy, on April 1, 2024.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

Asked how vulnerable olive trees were to climate change, Mintec’s Holland replied: “The word I would use is ‘exceedingly.'”

Holland said, “I think one thing I would say is that players we speak to are extremely concerned, because the climate generally is getting warmer. And a lot of these issues are exacerbated, of course, with more heat, less rain, drier soils, less moisture and olive oil flies are also one of these issues that people speculate is only going to get worse.”

He added, “Some players we speak to that have been doing this for many years wonder how they are going to carry on because if you are losing 40%, 50%, 60% of your crop and you still have all the input costs and the fertilizer costs, the tending, weeding, the watering if you can … then the issue is quite critical.”

Olive oil thefts

Rising olive oil prices have also coincided with a spate of thefts.

Supermarkets in Spain said in early March that olive oil had become the most stolen item across large swaths of the country, according to The Financial Times. The main culprits were said to be criminal gangs targeting the essential food item for resale on the black market.

In August last year, approximately 50,000 liters of extra virgin olive oil was stolen from one of Spain’s oil mills in the Cordoba region, according to local media reports.

The stolen olive oil was estimated to have been worth more than 420,000 euros at the time.

— CNBC’s Lee Ying Shan contributed to this report.

By CNBC

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Privacy breach at Australian airline Qantas gives access to other customers’ details https://thegbm.com/privacy-breach-at-australian-airline-qantas-gives-access-to-other-customers-details/ Wed, 01 May 2024 15:37:27 +0000 https://thegbm.com/privacy-breach-at-australian-airline-qantas-gives-access-to-other-customers-details

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The tail of a Qantas plane is seen at take off from Sydney International Airport in Sydney, Australia, on Feb. 22, 2024.
Jenny Evans | Getty Images News | Getty Images

Qantas on Wednesday apologized after some customers using the Australian airline’s app were shown the name, flight details and loyalty status of other passengers.

The national carrier said there was no indication this was a cyber security incident, and that its current investigation suggests that the data breach was caused by a technology issue related to recent system changes.

Qantas shares dipped 1.2% during Wednesday trade.

During two periods on Wednesday morning, some users of the Qantas app were shown the details of other members of the airline’s frequent flyer program, including their name, upcoming flight details, loyalty points balance and status. The breach did not give visibility over the financial information of other passengers.

Customers were not able to transfer or use other people’s airline points, and there were no reports of customers boarding flights using incorrect details, Qantas said.

During the incident, Qantas advised customers to log out and then back in to their frequent flyer app account.

“We sincerely apologise to all customers impacted and continue to monitor the Qantas app closely,” the airline said in a statement.

The Qantas incident comes after other airlines experienced data breaches involving malicious actors in recent years. Spain’s Air Europa last year told customers that a cyberattack on its online payment system had exposed some credit card details, according to Reuters, while British Airways was fined £20 million, or $24.9 million, in 2020 for a major data breach that exposed the personal and credit card data of hundreds of thousands of passengers.

By CNBC

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‘An intense five years’: Read HSBC CEO Noel Quinn’s surprise resignation statement https://thegbm.com/an-intense-five-years-read-hsbc-ceo-noel-quinns-surprise-resignation-statement/ Tue, 30 Apr 2024 13:22:31 +0000 https://thegbm.com/an-intense-five-years-read-hsbc-ceo-noel-quinns-surprise-resignation-statement

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HSBC CEO Noel Quinn.
Lam Yik | Bloomberg | Getty Images

HSBC on Tuesday announced the surprise departure of Group Chief Executive Officer Noel Quinn after nearly five years at the helm.

In a statement released by the bank, Quinn said:

“It has been a privilege to lead HSBC. I never imagined when I started 37 years ago that I would have the honour of becoming Group Chief Executive of this great bank. I am proud of what we have achieved, and it has only been possible because of the talent, dedication, and commitment of the people at HSBC. I want to thank them wholeheartedly and wish them continued success for the next stage of the journey. After an intense five years, it is now the right time for me to get a better balance between my personal and business life. I intend to pursue a portfolio career going forward.”

First appointed as interim CEO in August 2019, Quinn took permanent leadership of HSBC in March 2020. He led the bank through challenges including the Covid-19 pandemic and deteriorating relations between China and the West.

The bank’s London-listed shares have risen over 30% since he became CEO.

On Tuesday, shares of HSBC — which also announced first-quarter earnings that beat expectations — were 3.6% higher at 11:04 a.m. London time.

The bank’s Chairman Mark Tucker paid tribute to Quinn’s leadership. “He has driven both our transformation strategy and created a simpler, more focused business that delivers higher returns. The bank is in a strong position as it enters the next phase of development and growth,” Tucker said in a statement.

HSBC said the hunt for its next CEO had begun, and that Quinn would remain in his post during this process.

By CNBC

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