Markets – Global Business Magazine https://thegbm.com Business news, opinion, reviews, interviews Fri, 09 Oct 2026 10:38:15 +0000 en-US hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=7.1.3 https://thegbm.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/Bizmag-logo.png Markets – Global Business Magazine https://thegbm.com 32 32 195744517 India calls JD Vance’s comments about immigrants ‘deeply offensive’ https://thegbm.com/india-calls-jd-vances-comments-about-immigrants-deeply-offensive/ Fri, 09 Oct 2026 10:38:15 +0000 https://thegbm.com/india-calls-jd-vances-comments-about-immigrants-deeply-offensive

In this article

U.S. Vice President JD Vance speaks during a Fraud Task Force press conference in the Eisenhower Executive Office Building at the White House on October 08, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Alex Wong | Getty Images

India called comments by U.S. Vice President J.D. Vance about immigrants from the country “deeply offensive” in an official government statement published on Friday.

Vance said on Thursday that the Trump administration wants foreign and local companies to “employ American workers,” and that they “cannot lay off American workers and then replace them with foreign indentured servants.”

He was speaking as the U.S. Department of Labor announced it would suspend Microsoft, Adobe and several major Indian information technology companies from its Permanent Labor Certification program, meaning they cannot apply for permanent residency for their employees on H-1 B visas.

Around 70% of H-1B beneficiaries in 2025 were born in India, per official data.

In a statement on Friday, India’s Ministry of External Affairs accused Vance of using “terminology that carries painful historical and colonial legacy connotations.”

“Such descriptions are unwarranted and ignore the fact that Indian professionals in the United States are highly educated and skilled contributors to its economy and innovation ecosystem,” the statement said.

Vance’s office did not immediately respond to a comment request from CNBC.

Vance was critical of Microsoft, accusing the company of replacing 6,000 laid-off workers with people on H-1B visas.

The Indian foreign ministry assured its citizens that measures announced by the U.S. will not affect the validity of existing H-1B visas or the status of H-1B visa holders and their dependents.

“Talent mobility adds value to both economies,” the statement said, adding that the suspensions “do not advance the shared ambitions of both countries.”

More hiring in the U.S.

The Indian companies affected by the ban include Cognizant, Infosys, Capgemini, Tata Consultancy Services, Wipro and HCL.

NASSCOM, the IT industry body, said in a statement that Indian technology companies have “significantly reduced their dependence on H-1B visas” over the last few years, and are expanding domestic hiring to their U.S. workforces.

The largest Indian IT company, Tata Consultancy Services, said its H-1B applications were in “single digits” in the last two years, and it intends to hire another 15,000 people in the U.S. over the next five years.

In June, a federal judge blocked the $100,000 H-1B visa fee U.S. President Donald Trump imposed last year.

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CNBC Daily Open: Is cheap gas America’s Godot? https://thegbm.com/cnbc-daily-open-is-cheap-gas-americas-godot/ Fri, 09 Oct 2026 01:42:01 +0000 https://thegbm.com/cnbc-daily-open-is-cheap-gas-americas-godot

In this article

U.S. President Donald Trump speaks to members of the media as he departs from the South Lawn of the White House on October 07, 2026 in Washington, DC.
Anna Moneymaker | Getty Images

Hello, this is Anniek Bao writing to you from Singapore. Welcome to another edition of CNBC’s Daily Open.

In Samuel Beckett’s tragicomedy, two men wait beside a barren tree for someone called Godot who never arrives. With the midterms nearing, Americans are waiting for a sustained drop in fuel prices that remains out of sight.

U.S. President Donald Trump has promised not to attack Iran until voters have had their say. That’s supposed to ease energy prices, but speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi aren’t convinced, placing more than 80% odds that gas will remain above $4 per gallon on Election Day next month.

Worries also arose in the AI trade. OpenAI told investors it reached about $50 billion in annualized revenue, not the $68 billion widely reported last month — dragging other heavyweight tech stocks down with it.

What you need to know today

Trump said Thursday the U.S. will not attack Iran before the Midterm Elections, adding that the two sides were having “productive discussions.”

The president, whose approval ratings have fallen to career-lows, has sought to calm the rising energy costs weighing on American households. But speculators on prediction market platform Kalshi are not buying it, pricing in an 87% chance that the average gas prices will stay above $4 per gallon heading into the elections in November.

A day before, reports said that the Pentagon had recently told U.S. Central Command to finish preparations to resume major combat operations against Iran.

Oil eased off its highs after the post, but it didn’t give up its gains. Brent crude futures, the international benchmark, gained 4% to top $104 a barrel. U.S. West Texas Intermediate futures advanced 3.6% to settle at $91.49 per barrel.

The U.S. Treasury Department, meanwhile, sanctioned more than a dozen vessels that it says are connected to Iran’s “shadow fleet” used to transport oil and gas out of the country, as Washington seeks to further squeeze Tehran’s economy to end the war that is now in its eighth month.

Stock futures were near flat after an underwhelming revenue report from OpenAI rattled the AI trade. S&P 500 futures were up 0.09%, while Nasdaq 100 futures added 0.05%. Dow Jones Industrial Average futures advanced 23 points, or 0.04%.

OpenAI told investors that it reached roughly $50 billion in annualized revenue at the end of September, well short of the $68 billion figure widely reported late last month. Shares of Nvidia, Oracle, CoreWeave and other artificial intelligence names sank.

Washington takes aim at Big Tech’s hiring

Vice President JD Vance announced the suspension of Microsoft, Adobe and six IT services firms from a program that helps skilled foreign workers get green cards.

“You’re a great American company, but you’ve got to hire great American workers,” Vance said of Microsoft.

“So we’re going to continue to support Microsoft and have a great relationship with Microsoft, but we’re also going to deny them the ability to apply for these permanent residencies until they show that they are going to get serious about putting American workers first,” Vance said.

Elon Musk had a busy day

SpaceX agreed to purchase a nationwide spectrum portfolio as it pushes its Starlink service deeper into the U.S. telecommunications market.

The deal involves the acquisition of a spectrum portfolio from Grain Management, which specializes in digital infrastructure, and is subject to approval by the Federal Communications Commission.

Elsewhere, Musk accused India’s “oligarchs” of blocking the launch of his company’s satellite internet service, Starlink, to protect their dominance in the market. The country’s telecom and internet service market is dominated by Reliance Chairman Mukesh Ambani’s Jio and Sunil Mittal’s Airtel, with both companies together holding over 80% market share.

“We are being blocked by certain oligarchs in order to maintain their monopolistic chokehold on the Indian people,” Musk said Wednesday stateside in a post on X, without naming his rivals. “You can guess who they are,” he said.

— Anniek Bao

And finally…

The Indian billionaire investing in Trump’s refinery project is also buying more Venezuelan crude

Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which is investing in a historic U.S. oil refinery project proposed by President Donald Trump, has now emerged as the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude outside the U.S.

Trump has been pushing India to buy more Venezuelan oil, but while state-owned oil companies are making opportunistic purchases, Reliance has been the primary buyer, according to Kpler data shared with CNBC. It shows that outside the U.S., India is the biggest destination for these supplies, with Reliance purchasing the bulk of that crude.

“Reliance’s Jamnagar complex has been the main destination for Venezuelan crude in India, and we expect it to remain the primary buyer,” Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, told CNBC.

— Priyanka Salve

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The Indian billionaire investing in Trump’s refinery project is also buying more Venezuelan crude https://thegbm.com/the-indian-billionaire-investing-in-trumps-refinery-project-is-also-buying-more-venezuelan-crude/ Thu, 08 Oct 2026 07:41:51 +0000 https://thegbm.com/the-indian-billionaire-investing-in-trumps-refinery-project-is-also-buying-more-venezuelan-crude

INDIA – 2026/05/02: In this photo illustration, a Reliance Industries logo is seen displayed on a smartphone with the flag of America in the background. (Photo Illustration by Avishek Das/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images)
Sopa Images | Lightrocket | Getty Images

Indian billionaire Mukesh Ambani’s Reliance Industries, which is investing in a historic U.S. oil refinery project proposed by President Donald Trump, has now emerged as the biggest buyer of Venezuelan crude outside the U.S.

Trump has been pushing India to buy more Venezuelan oil, but while state-owned oil companies are making opportunistic purchases, Reliance has been the primary buyer, according to Kpler data shared with CNBC. It shows that outside the U.S., India is the biggest destination for these supplies, with Reliance purchasing the bulk of that crude.

“Reliance’s Jamnagar complex has been the main destination for Venezuelan crude in India, and we expect it to remain the primary buyer,” Sumit Ritolia, lead research analyst at Kpler, told CNBC.

In September, India imported 257,000 barrels per day of Venezuelan crude, of which 76% went to Reliance Industries, data showed. The Jamnagar refinery is the world’s “largest and most complex single-site refinery” with crude processing capacity of 1.4 million barrels per day, according to Reliance.

Venezuelan heavy and extra-heavy grades of crude are relatively difficult barrels to process and are not universally suitable across India’s refining system, Ritola said, adding that the Jamnagar complex is particularly well configured for these barrels.

In March, Trump had announced that the U.S. will build its first refinery in 50 years with investment from India’s Reliance Industries. The president had thanked Reliance for this “tremendous investment.”

While Reliance has not confirmed the size of investment, Trump in a Truth Social post had said that “THIS IS A HISTORIC $300 BILLION DOLLAR DEAL — THE BIGGEST IN U.S. HISTORY.”

Reliance is the most valued company in India, with a market capitalization of more than $169 billion.

Reliance’s Venezuelan purchases come at a time when India’s procurement of Russian oil has drawn the ire of the U.S., where lawmakers have given Trump the power to impose up to 100% tariffs on countries buying energy from Moscow.

Despite mounting pressure to buy more energy from the U.S. and cut its dependence on Russian oil, the Indian government has insisted that its decisions are driven by the need to ensure energy security for its people.

While oil supplies in September from Russia to India have “moderated” from exceptionally high levels in June and July, that is largely driven by the stronger competition between Beijing and New Delhi and not the threat of tariffs, Ritolia said.

India is the largest destination for Russian crude, securing a supply of 1.82 million barrels per day in September versus China’s 1.49 mbd, according to Kpler data, much more than Venezuelan purchases.

For October, 350,000 barrels per day of crude supplies from Venezuela are bound for India, though some of these could land in November because of the long voyage time, Ritolia said.

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AI startup Manus raises $500 million in first funding round since Meta breakup https://thegbm.com/ai-startup-manus-raises-500-million-in-first-funding-round-since-meta-breakup/ Thu, 08 Oct 2026 06:59:59 +0000 https://thegbm.com/ai-startup-manus-raises-500-million-in-first-funding-round-since-meta-breakup

In this article

The Manus AI website arranged on a computer in Shanghai, China, on Wednesday, Jan. 7, 2026.
Bloomberg | Getty Images

AI agent startup Manus has raised more than $500 million in its first funding round since Meta was forced to abandon its acquisition of the company.

Butterfly Effect, Manus’ parent company, said Thursday that the round was led by private equity firm Boyu Capital and venture investor IDG Capital, with follow-on investment from existing shareholders Tencent, HSG and ZhenFund.

The company did not disclose its post-funding valuation. Bloomberg reported last month that Manus was set to double its valuation to $4 billion in this financing round, making it the country’s most valuable AI agent maker.

The raise suggests investors aren’t deterred by Beijing’s unprecedented order to block Meta’s short-lived $2 billion acquisition. Meta was working to integrate Manus’ team and technology into its system when authorities blocked the deal. It also shows that appetite for AI-agent startups has held up, even as the underlying foundation models improve quickly and price competition intensifies.

“The fundraising shows that the short-term fallout of the Meta case has been contained and investors are willing to back Manus as an independent company,” said Dan Wang, China director at Eurasia Group, also noting the renewed confidence in the commercial potential of AI agents.

Manus could ultimately aim for a public listing but the more imminent task would be revamping its business and ownership structure to prove profitability and align with Beijing’s regulatory requirement, analysts say.  

“The immediate task for Manus now is proving scale, profitability and regulatory alignment,” said Han Lin, China country director at The Asia Group.

Earlier this month, Manus said it had resumed independent operations after its split from Meta and that its founding team would continue to push forward generative AI agents for users globally.

Short lived acquisition

Once seen as a blueprint for Chinese startups seeking global reach, Manus has become a cautionary tale for companies squeezed between regulators in Beijing and Washington.

The company launched in early 2025 in China, then moved its staff to Singapore after winning backing from U.S. venture firm Benchmark. Meta announced the acquisition in December. Chinese regulators later blocked it. The National Development and Reform Commission said it had decided to “prohibit foreign investment in the Manus project.” By then, Meta had begun integrating Manus’ team and technology into its own.

Since the split, the AI startup has unveiled Manus 2.0, built on a new in-house execution system called Cascade. It also launched Cue, a standalone personal-agent app in which each agent has its own email address, phone number, and mobile wallet.

Meta has pressed ahead with its own personal AI agent, launching its Muse agent in early September, modeled on the open-source AI agent OpenClaw.

The “close integration” with Manus “does not disappear when the transaction is reversed,” said Matthias Hendrichs, a Singapore-based adviser to global AI firms.

“You can separate companies, but you cannot make engineers forget what they learned.”

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Inside India newsletter: Food crisis, economic shock ahead as India braces for El Niño https://thegbm.com/inside-india-newsletter-food-crisis-economic-shock-ahead-as-india-braces-for-el-nino/ Thu, 08 Oct 2026 00:14:40 +0000 https://thegbm.com/inside-india-newsletter-food-crisis-economic-shock-ahead-as-india-braces-for-el-nino

Hello, this is Priyanka Salve, writing to you from Singapore.

Welcome to the latest edition of “Inside India“ — your one-stop destination for stories and developments from the world’s fastest-growing large economy.

India is one of the largest producers of farm products and ranks among the world’s top exporters of rice and sugar. Its farms help to feed almost 1.5 billion people, keep supply-side inflation under check, and sustain 46.1% of India’s workforce, driving consumer spending.

But this crucial sector now faces the heat from the so-called super El Niño. This week I dig deeper to understand what this global weather event holds for India.

Any thoughts on today’s newsletter? Share them with the team.

The big story

This year is not getting any better for the world’s fastest-growing economy.

The super El Niño weather phenomenon is emerging as the latest headwind for India’s growth, which is already facing global energy shocks, trade uncertainty with the U.S. and record exits of foreign investors from its equity markets.

From June to September, a key season for its mostly rain-fed farms and reservoirs, India received its lowest rainfall in more than a decade, as per local media reports. It was the fourth lowest since 2001, and the 13th driest since 1901, according to the India Meteorological Department.

Reservoirs in the country were 28% short of full capacity at the end of September and posed a risk to winter crops, according to a report by Nomura on Monday. Several parts of key farm states such as Maharashtra, Andhra Pradesh, Punjab, and Haryana are facing extreme “drought conditions,” Nomura stated.

India’s sugar industry is vital for agriculture, industry, and rural livelihoods, supporting nearly 5 crore farmers and 5 lakh factory workers. India is the world’s second-largest sugarcane (Saccharum officinarum) producer. Recently, the sector has been affected by El Nino, which brings weak monsoons and dry weather, reducing yields and sucrose recovery.
Nurphoto | Nurphoto | Getty Images

India and other countries are contending with “significant fertilizer shortages” as key producers in the Middle East and Russia have been impacted by geopolitical conflicts, Foreign Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar said at an event organized by the non-profit Asia Society in New York last week.

Jaishankar warned that with the super El Niño added to the mix, “there is going to be a major food crisis” in the coming months. Energy shocks and the flow of money to safe harbors have been “very stressful” for economies of the Global South, he said. The Global South is a term used to characterize less-developed or emerging economies.

Following Jaishankar’s comments, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s political opponents blamed the government for not acting in time to avert the crisis.

Super El Niño impact

Inflation in India has been rising for 10 straight months, crossing the central bank’s medium-term target of 4% in August, even as economic growth has been resilient so far.

While the share of farming in India’s economy is around 17%, it provides a livelihood to roughly 46.1% of India’s workforce. Its produce is pivotal in curbing supply-side inflation domestically, and the country ranks among the top global exporters of rice and sugar. The rural economy, largely dependent on farming, is also an important pillar of consumer spending.

India’s “monsoon deficit appears to be larger than originally expected,” the World Bank said in a report on Tuesday. “This is expected to reduce agricultural output and rural demand while increasing food inflation, adding to existing pressure from higher energy prices,” the report said.

Rural areas account for nearly 40% of sales of fast-moving consumer goods, according to data from consultancy Nielsen Consumer. Rural demand is key for major multinational companies in India such as Hindustan Unilever, Colgate-Palmolive India, Nestle India, and the automakers Maruti Suzuki and Hyundai Motors, per market data based on annual reports and earnings calls.

According to Hanna Luchnikava-Schorsch, head of Asia-Pacific economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, India’s rural economy is likely to slow “materially” in 2026 and 2027, “as drought conditions, below-normal monsoon rainfall and depleted reservoir levels reduce crop yields and farm incomes.”

While broader indicators have remained resilient so far, Luchnikava-Schorsch told CNBC that “early signs of stress are already emerging,” adding that tractor sales had slowed and “demand for rural employment support programs has begun to rise.”

Morgan Stanley estimated that the gross value added by India’s agricultural sector will grow by 1.6% in the financial year ending in March 2027, much slower than the 3.5% growth seen over the past three years. S&P Global Market Intelligence Analysis forecast growth would cool to 1.9%.

Experts agreed that India is among the most exposed major Asian economies when it comes to the super El Niño, but while many are hopeful that the country will manage the fallout using its policy buffers, some predicted it has the potential to stir unrest.

“Food security risks across South and Southeast Asia are set to rise, raising the potential for unrest and political instability in some of Asia’s most exposed economies,” according to global risk advisory firm Verisk Maplecroft in a Sept. 16 report.

India, Indonesia, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines are among the countries that are most exposed to food security risk from the super El Niño and also face the highest risk of civil unrest due to rising prices, Verisk Maplecroft said.

Need to know

India’s central bank hikes rates for the first time since 2023 as inflation risks build
The Reserve Bank of India on Wednesday raised interest rates for the first time since 2023, joining several major central banks in tightening monetary policy to arrest accelerating inflation. It increased the benchmark repo rate by 25 basis points to a 1-year high of 5.50%.

U.S. trade representative Greer says deal with India not ‘imminent’ after Modi-Trump call
U.S. trade representative Jamieson Greer on Thursday signaled that a deal with India was not on the cards soon, as Washington and New Delhi continue to hash out the finer points of a much-awaited agreement.

Little room for ‘giving and taking’: India’s finance minister confirms trade impasse with the U.S.
India’s Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman said trade talks with the U.S. had reached a plateau, adding to growing skepticism around a deal between New Delhi and Washington.

Coming up

Oct. 12: Consumer price index data for September

Oct. 14: India wholesale price index for September

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Jaguar unveils $130,500 electric vehicle two years after controversial rebrand https://thegbm.com/jaguar-unveils-130500-electric-vehicle-two-years-after-controversial-rebrand/ Wed, 07 Oct 2026 07:57:00 +0000 https://thegbm.com/jaguar-unveils-130500-electric-vehicle-two-years-after-controversial-rebrand

In this article

The Jaguar Type 01 is revealed during the Jaguar Type 01 Launch Event at Storied NYC on October 06, 2026 in New York City.
Noam Galai | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

Luxury carmaker Jaguar has launched its new all-electric vehicle, two years after the famed British company’s controversial rebrand prompted a social media backlash.

The automotive manufacturer, which is owned by India’s Tata Motors, unveiled the Type 01 model on Tuesday at an event in New York City, describing it as the “most technically advanced” and “most powerful and aerodynamic” Jaguar ever.

It marks a radical new direction for the company, which was criticized in November 2024 when it revealed a series of changes ahead of becoming a fully electric brand.

Jaguar posted a 30-second clip on X at the time which featured several models in brightly colored clothing and marketing slogans such as “live vivid”, “delete ordinary” and “copy nothing.”

Notably, the ad did not feature a car or the company’s traditional cat logo. Among those to criticize the ad was Elon Musk, with the owner of the X social media platform asking: “Do you sell cars?”

Jaguar sought to defend the ad campaign, telling Sky News at the time that the company wanted “to be bold and disruptive.”

Italy’s Ferrari and Britain’s Bentley have also launched their first EV models this year, seeking to test wealthy buyer’s appetite for going electric as luxury carmakers seek to compete with cheaper Chinese car brands.

Jaguar’s Type 01 has a starting price of £130,000 (roughly $172,000) in the U.K. and around $130,500 in the U.S., according to multiple media reports, which is significantly higher than previous comparable models.

The four-door “Grand Tourer” has an ultra-long bonnet, low roofline, frameless doors and a camera instead of a rear window. It has a range of up to 450 miles and can accelerate from 0-62 miles per hour in 3.2 seconds.

The launch of the model comes as Jaguar Land Rover continues its recovery from a cyberattack that forced the company to halt production last year, and one month after JLR announced it would cut 4,000 jobs as part of a major cost-cutting drive.

JLR CEO PB Balaji described the unveiling of Type 01 as the start of “an exciting new era” for Jaguar.

“Combining British heritage, bold creativity, advanced technology and groundbreaking engineering, it reflects our ambition to create objects of desire that will help us invite a new generation of clients into Jaguar’s loyal and passionate customer base,” Balaji said in a statement.

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Why AI is both the hope and the hazard for world leaders, according to IMF chief Georgieva https://thegbm.com/why-ai-is-both-the-hope-and-the-hazard-for-world-leaders-according-to-imf-chief-georgieva/ Wed, 07 Oct 2026 06:16:39 +0000 https://thegbm.com/why-ai-is-both-the-hope-and-the-hazard-for-world-leaders-according-to-imf-chief-georgieva

NEW YORK, NEW YORK – SEPTEMBER 22: Kristalina Georgieva, managing director for the International Monetary Fund, speaks onstage during “Semafor: The Next 3 Billion” at Convene on September 22, 2026 in New York City.
Roy Rochlin | Getty Images Entertainment | Getty Images

SINGAPORE — The technology that investors and governments are counting on to lift the global economy is also adding pressure that threatens growth, the head of the International Monetary Fund said, urging policymakers to stop delaying painful choices on debt.

Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told the audience at a Wednesday event in Singapore that artificial intelligence is “rapidly becoming a key driver of countries’ relative fortunes in the world economy.”

But the triple forces of AI advancement, soaring energy costs and record public debt are challenging the already “underwhelming” growth this decade.

“Love it, hate it, or fear it, AI is here,” Georgieva said.

Tugged in two directions

Speaking ahead of a series of IMF and World Bank annual meetings that kick off next week, Georgieva framed the global economy as being tugged in two directions at once: a “negative energy supply shock” from the war in the Gulf, now in its eighth month, and a “positive demand shock” from the AI investment boom. The combined effect, she said, is “highly uneven across the world.”

On the upside, global AI investment as a share of GDP will reach, and likely exceed, the amounts that went into building the railroads, electricity grid, or telecommunications network. AI hardware and related technology products already account for more than a tenth of world goods trade, she said.

The IMF estimates that AI could add up to half a percentage point to annual world growth if done right. “Going from 3% to 3.5% over a decade — that is like adding an economy the size of ASEAN to the world economy,” Georgieva said.

But the benefits are likely highly concentrated. The boom largely bypasses economies less involved in the global AI supply chain, “increasing the risk of widening economic inequality across the globe,” she said.

The boom also feeds the inflation worry that has dogged policymakers from the U.S. to Europe and Asia. “The AI building boom is inflationary,” she said, as are energy and food shocks, tariffs and defense spending.

Oil prices have stayed above $100 per barrel as the Middle East conflict dragged on with few signs of a diplomatic off-ramp. Retail diesel prices also rose to record highs as refining capacity squeezed energy supplies.

That inflation pressure flows straight into bond markets, as bond yields in the U.S., Germany, and Japan have surged to their highest levels in decades. Ballooning long-term private bond issuance by AI-related borrowers also competes with governments for capital, although part of the rise may reflect expectations of faster growth, Georgieva said.

The debt problem

Global public debt is near its highest level since World War II and on track to soon exceed 100% of GDP, with advanced economies the “worst offenders,” Georgieva said. For 17 years, governments had “a relatively easy ride” because interest rates stayed below growth rates. “Higher interest rates now put an end to that.”

The interest-to-growth differential is now “much less favourable” and “set to climb higher,” she said, which means the growth needed to reduce debt ratios without fiscal effort is now “out of reach in the near term.”

The strain is already visible in Europe, where spreads over German bunds are widening not just for France and Italy but for Ireland, Portugal and others that had reduced debt and deficits after the euro-area crisis.

After a string of shocks that have ballooned public debt and most countries’ fiscal deficits remained above pre-pandemic averages, “fiscal space is crying out for replenishment,” Georgieva said.

AI risk underpriced

Georgieva also pointed to a financial stability risk in the AI boom itself. Strong corporate earnings are driving share prices and wealth effects, she said, but “should earnings fall short, however, hyperscaler leverage and large and growing global holdings of U.S. equities could turn a disappointment into a far-reaching shock.”

Citing Amara’s Law, which holds that people overestimate a new technology in the short run and underestimate it in the long run, she said it is “somewhere in the transition between today’s AI building boom and tomorrow’s arrival of AI’s benefits that we will traverse the period of maximum risk.”

Georgieva said the first line of defense is regulation and supervision. “Now may be a good time for a prudently hawkish bias in many countries’ monetary policy,” she said.

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Russia’s neighbor backs push to lift ban on nuclear weapons, prompting outcry from Moscow https://thegbm.com/russias-neighbor-backs-push-to-lift-ban-on-nuclear-weapons-prompting-outcry-from-moscow/ Tue, 06 Oct 2026 14:33:58 +0000 https://thegbm.com/russias-neighbor-backs-push-to-lift-ban-on-nuclear-weapons-prompting-outcry-from-moscow

Gitanas Nauseda, Lithuania’s president, during the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA) in New York, US, on Tuesday, Sept. 22, 2026.
Bloomberg | Bloomberg | Getty Images

The Kremlin on Tuesday warned a preliminary decision by Lithuanian lawmakers to lift a constitutional ban on hosting nuclear weapons and the potential deployment of a NATO military base in the country will mark “another significant escalation” of regional tensions.

The comments come shortly after Lithuania’s parliament voted in favor of advancing a constitutional change on deploying nuclear weapons on its territory. It is the first of two ballots required for the change, with the latter scheduled for Jan. 12 next year.

The country, which is a member of both the European Union and NATO and shares a border with Russia’s Kaliningrad exclave on the Baltic Sea, has been looking to remove the constitutional ban to strengthen its resilience amid growing security concerns.

Lithuania has been one of Ukraine’s staunchest allies during Russian President Vladimir Putin‘s more than 4½-year conflict with Kyiv, providing extensive military equipment and financial support.

President Donald Trump, meanwhile, said he would consider Lithuania’s request for a permanent U.S. military base in the country. “They are friends of mine. They are great people, so we will certainly look at it,” Trump said Monday.

Asked about the developments, Kremlin spokesperson Dmitry Peskov said Tuesday that they “cannot be perceived as anything other than a step toward escalating tensions, just as the deployment of nuclear weapons in a neighboring country cannot,” according to Russian state news agency Tass.

“Neither of these developments will contribute to stability and predictability on the European continent. On the contrary, they will, to our regret, mark yet another significant escalation of tensions. As for Russia, of course, Moscow will be forced to take all necessary measures to guarantee its own security,” Peskov said.

Article 137 of Lithuania’s constitution explicitly prohibits the deployment of weapons of mass destruction and the establishment of foreign military bases on Lithuanian territory. The proposed amendment, which will require the support of at least 94 of the 141 members of parliament to pass, would remove that provision.

Lithuanian Parliament Speaker Juozas Olekas said scrapping the restriction would bolster the country’s resilience and remove a legal distinction between Lithuania and other EU and NATO countries.

“We will ensure stronger support that could be available to us,” Olekas said, according to state broadcaster LRT.

“By addressing the legal exceptions that Lithuania had compared with other EU and NATO countries, they will be gone and we will be equal,” he added.

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DeepSeek considers doubling latest funding round to up to $15 billion, sources say https://thegbm.com/deepseek-considers-doubling-latest-funding-round-to-up-to-15-billion-sources-say/ Tue, 06 Oct 2026 12:59:10 +0000 https://thegbm.com/deepseek-considers-doubling-latest-funding-round-to-up-to-15-billion-sources-say

The DeepSeek Chinese AI company logo is seen in this photo illustration taken in Warsaw, Poland on 30 January, 2025.
Jaap Arriens | Nurphoto | Getty Images

China’s DeepSeek is considering expanding its latest funding round to as much as 100 billion yuan ($14.9 billion), double its earlier target, with state-backed funds and corporate investors jostling for stakes, people familiar with the matter told CNBC.

The AI startup has fielded strong interest from state-backed funds, investment arms of listed Chinese companies and venture capital firms, according to the two people, who asked not to be named because they were not authorized to discuss the private talks.

But DeepSeek is vetting prospective investors closely, turning away private investment funds raised from individual investors and limiting the pool largely to government and corporate funds, the people said.

The company, which began taking outside capital for the first time this year, initially set a 50 billion yuan target for the current round.

The fundraising process remains fluid, and the amount could still change before talks conclude, the people said. Bloomberg reported earlier Tuesday that DeepSeek is close to securing at least 80 billion yuan, with Tencent and battery maker CATL among the largest backers, and is eyeing an IPO in early 2027.

CATL, Geely Auto and investment managers Monolith Management and Loyal Valley Capital have committed capital in the latest round, one of the people told CNBC.

DeepSeek, CATL, Geely Auto, Monolith Management and Loyal Valley Capital did not respond to CNBC’s requests for comment.

The round, initially expected to close by the end of August, has taken longer than planned as some prospective investors waver over the price, one of the people said, though talks are nearing the end.

DeepSeek is seeking a valuation of about 500 billion yuan, or $75 billion, the people said. Its first external funding round, which closed in June, raised about 50 billion yuan. An investor filing related to the round implied a valuation of roughly 350 billion yuan.

From lab to listing

The AI startup triggered a sell-off in U.S. tech stocks in January 2025 after releasing AI models that rivaled American peers at far lower cost. Its latest model, V4.1 Flash, released in September, is designed for greater capability and faster inference, the company said.

DeepSeek’s decision to open up to external funding was seen as a sign of AI’s ballooning capital demand and mounting pressure to retain talent amid intensifying competition.

Founder Liang Wenfeng told investors at a private meeting in July that he prioritizes pushing the technology toward artificial general intelligence over maximizing profit.

Talks on the current round were briefly suspended after Liang reportedly said in a private investor meeting that Chinese AI companies still lagged far behind their U.S. counterparts and relied heavily on Nvidia chips.

DeepSeek has tapped CITIC Securities to prepare for a possible IPO on Shanghai’s STAR Market, Reuters reported in September.

Its domestic rival Moonshot AI is also reportedly targeting an early-2027 IPO after raising at a $50 billion valuation, Bloomberg reported Tuesday.

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By CNBC

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Trump allows cheaper, dyed diesel on highways to blunt historic fuel-cost spike ahead of midterms https://thegbm.com/trump-allows-cheaper-dyed-diesel-on-highways-to-blunt-historic-fuel-cost-spike-ahead-of-midterms/ Tue, 06 Oct 2026 07:05:36 +0000 https://thegbm.com/trump-allows-cheaper-dyed-diesel-on-highways-to-blunt-historic-fuel-cost-spike-ahead-of-midterms

A truck parks at a diesel fuel pump with prices above $8 per gallon at a truck stop in the Wilmington neighborhood of Los Angeles, California on September 22, 2026.
Patrick T. Fallon | Afp | Getty Images

President Donald Trump has allowed the use of cheaper red-dyed diesel, typically reserved for farm operations, to be used more broadly in an attempt to bring down record-high fuel costs.

Trump signed an executive order Monday evening stateside to temporarily allow truckers and farmers to use red-dyed diesel — which is exempt from highway fuel taxes — and deferred related taxes on the fuel through the end of this year.

The tax-free diesel is typically used by farm equipment, construction machinery, trucks and other off-road vehicles. It is therefore exempt from a 24.4 cent-per-gallon tax applied to diesel fuel sold for highway transportation.

Using dyed diesel in vehicles operated on public roads is considered illegal, and could result in fines for tax evasion. But several states this year have relaxed restrictions on the tax-exempt diesel to help Americans cope with surging fuel prices.

The U.S. national average price of diesel topped $6 a gallon in September for the first time ever, as fuel supply disruptions triggered by the conflicts in Ukraine and Iran pushed up transportation costs across the country. Americans are spending about $700 million more per day on gas and diesel than they did a year ago, according to Bob McNally, president of Rapidan Energy.

The White House said truckers could save more than $100 per fill-up.

The order also directed the Treasury Secretary, in consultation with the Department of War, to defer collection of the federal excise tax on highway diesel through the end of 2026, without interest or penalties, according to a fact sheet released by the White House. The Treasury is also directed to “explore pathways to eliminate the obligation to pay the deferred taxes” altogether.

The Trump administration cited tight global supply tied to the war in Ukraine and a lack of refining capacity as pushing up diesel prices and household costs. The Group of Seven nations also agreed to release 100 million barrels of diesel and crude reserves, after pressure from Trump who had floated a ban on U.S. exports of the fuel.

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By CNBC

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